Insider Tips - Weekly Stock Market Report - Week March 17, 2025

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Weekly Insider Tips - March 17, 2025

Welcome to another weekly Insider Tips! Let's dive into my weekly market analysis, and unfortunately, we're facing a prolonged red market. While this downturn can reverse, the indicators show a clear downtrend that has persisted for about eight days, with some indicators red for even longer. Timing the market is crucial, as 70% of a stock's movement is influenced by the market direction, and 30% by its industry. I’ve mostly moved to cash, with a few covered put positions, and I’m relieved I did, as major indices like the NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Dow Jones are all significantly down and below the 200-day moving average. This market signals more sellers than buyers, and attempting to catch a falling knife is risky.

Technical Analysis

The market is currently in a downtrend, with all major indices—NASDAQ, S&P 500, Dow Jones, and the New York Stock Exchange—trading below their 200-day moving averages. The volatility index (VIX) has spiked from 14.74 to nearly 30, reflecting panic in the market. The transportation average has also dropped from 17,845 to 14,000, signaling a slowdown in the movement of goods.

Market Trends

Oil Prices: Declining due to decreased demand and an oversupply.
Housing Market: Declining due to an oversupply of housing and reduced new construction.
Gold and Bitcoin: Rising as a hedge against inflation, driven by increased money printing and rising M2 money supply.

Individual Stock Performance

Apple (AAPL): Experiencing a death cross with the 10-week and 40-week moving averages, heading towards support levels at $200, $193, and possibly $190.
MicroStrategy (MSTR): Bouncing off the 200-day moving average for the third week in a row, showing some resilience.
Tesla (TSLA): Filling a gap at $212 but experiencing heavy selling pressure, with the potential to revisit the $139 gap from a year ago.
NVIDIA (NVDA): Rolling over with an ABCD pattern to the downside and a death cross, struggling to find buyers.
Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT): All showing similar downtrends due to weakness in the computer index.

Key Takeaways

Market timing is essential to protect capital and avoid heavy losses.
Moving to cash and holding covered puts has been a wise strategy in this environment.
The market is oversold, but further downside is possible before a true reversal.
There are early signs of potential recovery in MicroStrategy and Tesla, but caution is warranted.

Conclusion

The market remains in a deep red phase, with significant downward pressure across major indices and key stocks. While it’s tempting to jump back in at perceived support levels, multiple probabilistic indicators should confirm the reversal before re-entering. For now, staying in cash and protecting capital is the prudent strategy. When the market turns green again, I’ll be ready to act.

In the meantime, it's essential to remember that there are more important things than making money—like family, laughter, and enjoying life.

Current Market Condition:

The red market section highlights a clear downtrend persisting for eight days, with major indices like the NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Dow Jones all trading below the 200-day moving average. The volatility index (VIX) has surged from 14.74 to nearly 30, reflecting panic in the market. With more sellers than buyers, attempting to catch a falling knife is risky. I've mostly moved to cash and hold a few covered put positions, which has proven wise as the market remains under heavy downward pressure. Staying in cash and waiting for a confirmed reversal is the safest strategy.

Stock Tip of the Week:

MicroStrategy MSTR EXPLODES - $11K Weekly Gains Coming
MicroStrategy (MSTR) is showing resilience in this red market, bouncing off the 200-day moving average for the third consecutive week. In this video, I break down how I captured $11K in weekly gains while navigating the current downtrend. With major indices struggling and volatility spiking, understanding market timing and strategic positioning is key to maximizing profits. Don't miss this in-depth analysis and actionable insights.

Sectors to Watch:

I'm including a list of the Top 10 Industry Groups that are showing strength even in this RED market. While the overall market is down, these sectors are holding up and could lead the way when the market turns GREEN. Use this as your watchlist to be prepared for the next buying opportunity.

Industry Sectors to Avoid

I'm also including the Bottom 10 Industry Groups (out of 197 total). These are the worst-performing industries in the current RED market, and they often produce the best short candidates. If you're looking to profit from the downside, this is where you'll find opportunities

REMEMBER:

Building a watchlist prepares us to seize opportunities when the market turns green. By focusing on the Top Industry Groups and maintaining discipline, we can strategically position ourselves for success in the next uptrend.