Insider Tips - Weekly Stock Market Report - Week September 16, 2024

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Weekly Insider Tips - September 16, 2024

This week’s stock market update highlights a cautiously optimistic outlook. While the market remains in a "yellow" phase, with mixed signals, there is a sense of improvement. The NASDAQ is showing signs of recovery, attempting to break out of a recent downtrend, while other major indexes like the S&P 500, Dow, and NYSE are nearing or approaching all-time highs. Key observations include the impact of the dollar's decline, strong performance in hard assets like gold and Bitcoin, mixed signals in housing and oil markets, and the importance of staying alert with individual stocks like Apple, NVIDIA, Tesla, and Oracle. Despite economic concerns, the market's upward trend and potential Fed rate cuts indicate an encouraging outlook, although caution remains essential.

Technical Analysis:

The current market is in a "yellow" state, meaning caution is advised as there is no clear trend, but some positive signs are emerging. Major indexes are displaying strength:

NASDAQ: After weeks of a downtrend, the NASDAQ is showing signs of recovery, bouncing off its 200-day moving average of 15,708 and breaking above its 50-day moving average. The index now aims for the 18,000 level, which may be supported by potential Federal Reserve rate cuts.
S&P 500: This index is above its 50-day moving average and nearing its all-time high, reflecting healthy market conditions.
Dow Jones: The Dow remains the leading index, just shy of its all-time high of 41,585. With a strong performance above the 50-day moving average, it could reach new highs with a strong trading day.
NYSE: The New York Stock Exchange index is also moving toward its all-time high of 19,298, showing consistent upward momentum.

Market Trends:

Volatility: The volatility index has dropped below its 50-day moving average, signaling reduced fear in the market. This implies that investors are more willing to take risks, which could support further market gains.
Housing Market: Contrary to media claims of a downturn, the Philadelphia Housing Index is performing well, indicating strength in the housing sector, supported by a strong gap-up in recent trading sessions.
Oil Market: The oil service sector is declining, which is often a recessionary signal. Lower demand for oil might suggest weakness in consumer activity, indicating potential challenges for the broader economy.

Individual Stocks:

Apple: After the release of the iPhone 16, the stock is hovering around its 50-day moving average. However, the lack of innovation in the new product has led to limited excitement. Apple remains stable but lacks the spark seen in more groundbreaking innovations from competitors like Huawei.
NVIDIA: The stock has seen a sharp 20% rise recently, bouncing from $100 to $120, with the potential to reach $140. However, as it's in a later-stage base, it may face resistance from sellers, limiting its ability to climb quickly.
Tesla: With anticipation building for its Robo-taxi release on October 10th, the stock has been rising steadily, though without significant volume. This suggests that while there is optimism, the market is still waiting for a major catalyst to propel Tesla higher.
Amazon: The stock is performing well, pushing above key resistance levels and heading toward its all-time high of 201. Its recovery is supported by broader market strength.
Oracle: After breaking out at $146.69, Oracle has climbed to $171, though it is now retracing to fill gaps in its chart. The company is quietly growing its revenue and sales, making it a stock to watch for steady, long-term gains.

Key Takeaways:

Cautious Optimism: The market is showing signs of strength across multiple indexes, with the NASDAQ catching up to the Dow and other key indicators nearing all-time highs.
Volatility Reduction: Lower volatility suggests investors are feeling more confident, contributing to a more positive outlook.
Mixed Sector Performance: While housing is strong, oil is showing weakness, signaling some economic uncertainty.
Hard Assets Shine: Gold and Bitcoin are performing well as the dollar weakens, reflecting broader concerns about inflation and debt.
Individual Stock Movements: Certain stocks like NVIDIA and Oracle are performing well, but caution is advised, particularly in later-stage bases.

Conclusion:

In summary, the market is in a cautiously optimistic phase. While overall trends show improvement, especially in the major indexes, the mixed signals from sectors like oil and housing suggest that risks remain. Investors should continue to approach the market with caution, particularly as the Fed’s rate cuts may provide both opportunities and uncertainties. Key stocks like NVIDIA, Tesla, and Oracle offer potential, but they may face hurdles along the way. As always, a diversified approach with attention to market trends and individual stock performance is critical for navigating this complex environment.

Current Market Condition:

This week's market update highlights that we are in a "yellow market," meaning caution is advised. While there are signs of improvement, the market remains uncertain. The NASDAQ is recovering from a recent downtrend, and major indexes like the S&P 500, Dow, and NYSE are moving toward all-time highs. However, mixed signals from different sectors, such as strong housing but weak oil demand, create a cautious outlook. Although the market shows potential, investors should be careful and watch for further developments before becoming too bullish.

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Podcast this Week:

Welcome to another episode of the Wealth Architect podcast. Today we have a really great episode. We dive into the fun world of Insurance and how you can possibly use your insurance policy to fund your investing..sounds impossible, right?! Join me and my guest Mark Willis as we discuss just how to do that! Join us!