Insider Tips - Weekly Stock Market Report - Week January 26, 2026
Insider Tips — January 26, 2026
This week’s Insider Tips comes to you from Ecuador — and while headlines keep whipping around (tariffs… “Greenland”… you name it), the market continues to do what strong markets often do: ignore the noise and keep melting higher.
We’re still sitting in four green lights, and what stands out most is how long this green market has lasted. It’s long in the tooth and could be ripe for a reversion-to-the-mean pullback — but with three of the four major indexes pushing highs, the trend remains intact. As always, we trade the market we have, not the one we fear.
Expanded Market Breakdown
Technical Analysis & Market Structure
The market remains firmly green — and this green phase has now stretched to roughly two months (starting around late November), which is unusually long for a short-term bull run. Extended trends can pull back, but they can also simply grind higher and “melt up” while the averages catch up.
Here’s what the major indexes are saying right now:
• NASDAQ: Reclaimed the 50-day moving average after briefly dipping below it; looks like it has a shot at prior highs (23,704 area), then potentially 24,019 if the bull run holds
• S&P 500: Bounced off the 50-day and pushed back toward all-time highs, consolidating near the 7,000 area
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Consolidating all-time highs just under 50,000
• NYSE Composite: The strongest of the bunch — recently printed new highs, showing broad participation
Bottom line: 3 out of 4 indexes look powerful, and the fourth (NASDAQ) is recovering — which keeps the “path of least resistance” pointed higher.
Volatility also continues to support the trend:
• VIX: Below its moving averages, signaling that panic is quiet and risk appetite is still present.
Market Trends & Macro Themes
A few themes are dominating right now:
• Extended green market: Long run since late November = strength, but also increased pullback risk
• Low volatility: Supports continued upside and “melt-up” behavior
• Rotation and leadership shifts: Some mega-cap tech has stalled, but broader indexes are still strong
• Hard assets ripping: Gold, silver, platinum (and even copper) are drawing strong inflows as investors crowd into “real” assets
Mark also highlighted what looks like short-squeeze behavior in paper gold, with gold gapping higher repeatedly — and emphasized that when moves get this vertical, you have to respect both the momentum and the risk.
Individual Stock Highlights
- Tesla: Sitting right around the 50-day with earnings approaching; direction likely depends on the call and forward narrative (AI/robotics vs. auto margins)
• NVIDIA: Still stuck in a multi-month consolidation around the 50-day — not an exciting buy setup right now
• Palantir: Late-stage base with weakness below the 50-day (even if it had a strong day today); great company ≠ great chart
• AMD: One of the strongest looks on the board — multiple up days in a row near highs, strong relative strength, buyers clearly in control (watch the gaps)
• Alphabet (GOOGL): Emerging as an AI leader and sitting right at a key pivot/buy point area; strong positioning thanks to cash flow + ecosystem
• Meta: Ugly gap-down damage; only barely back above the 50-day — and earnings next week adds risk
• Microsoft: Not acting well; Mark noted a “death cross” style breakdown and already exited — bounce is fine, but overall structure still looks heavy
• Gold (GLD): Continues gapping higher into all-time highs; strong momentum, but gaps eventually matter
• Gold Miners (VanEck / miners basket): Strong uptrend with rising volume; still showing open gaps below
• Silver: Extreme “hockey stick” move (Mark mentioned spot silver spiking aggressively intraday) — very tempting, but also very risky to chase after a vertical run
Also notable: Bitcoin hasn’t been participating the same way — suggesting capital may be rotating into metals for now.
Breakout Candidates & Opportunities
- AMD: Clear semiconductor leadership; strong demand and persistent buying pressure near highs
• Alphabet: Strong AI narrative + strong chart behavior near a pivot point
• Gold miners: Momentum remains strong, but manage risk carefully given the speed of the move and the gaps below
Key Takeaways
- The market remains green — and it’s been green longer than normal
• Breadth is strong (NYSE Composite leading), while NASDAQ is recovering near the 50-day
• Volatility is quiet, supporting continued upside
• Semiconductors are showing leadership (AMD especially)
• Hard assets are the story (gold/miners/silver), but parabolic moves require discipline
• Probability beats prediction — respect the trend until the lights change
Conclusion
This is still a green market — stretched, yes — but intact. Pullbacks can happen at any time in extended runs, especially after vertical moves in crowded trades like metals. But the market hasn’t issued broad “trend break” signals yet.
Until the lights change, the play is the same: stay disciplined, focus on the strongest charts, and manage risk like a pro.
Current Market Condition:
The market remains firmly green, with this bullish phase now stretching close to two months — longer than is typical for a short-term run. Extended green markets can invite pullbacks, but they can also continue to grind higher and “melt up” as price digests gains. With three of the four major indexes at or near highs, volatility remaining subdued, and broad participation led by the NYSE Composite, the path of least resistance remains higher. The trend is stretched, but intact — reinforcing the need to trade what is, not what might be.
Stock Tips This Week:
Risk Management in Trading: Why Probability Beats Prediction (NVIDIA + Microsoft Update)
In this video, Mark revisits two “dynamite” picks he highlighted a few weeks ago—NVIDIA and Microsoft—and explains why he’s now out of both positions. The lesson: you make decisions based on probabilities, and when you’re wrong, you must be wrong small.
He breaks down NVIDIA’s second-stage base and the reality that ~40% of breakouts fail, noting the stock has been choppy around the 50-day moving average and is forming a descending triangle while the QQQ/NASDAQ also lags versus other indexes.
For Microsoft, Mark points to clearer technical damage: the stock is below the 50-day and 200-day, rolling over on the weekly, and heading into a potential death cross (50-day moving below the 200). He also highlights a likely gap-fill target near the $400 area and warns that selling volume has been elevated.
The core takeaway is pure risk management: kill the monster while it’s small—don’t hold and hope just to be “right.” Use a robotic exit plan (stops/circuit breakers) so you can exit unemotionally, protect capital, and always re-enter later if conditions improve.
Podcast Episode This Week:
In this episode of the Wealth Architect Podcast, Mark Yegge sits down with Joe LoPresti—founder of Clear Point Family Offices and Arlington Wealth Management, and co-author of Exit by Design—to unpack a reality most business owners miss: 80–85% regret selling their company within a year because they didn’t plan their exit the right way.
They discuss why most planning is uncoordinated (business + personal), how traditional advisors are often limited by how they’re paid (so they focus only on investments), and why business owners need a “quarterback” approach—like a fractional family office—to bring tax, legal, risk, estate, and business strategy into one unified plan.
Joe also breaks down his two-meeting exploratory process, why enterprise value (often ~80% of a business owner’s wealth) matters more than just the “other 20%,” and the first steps owners should take—starting with an honest look at whether they’ve outgrown their current advisory team.
